Scientists say hotter, drier conditions linked to a strong El Niño could make landfill fires more intense and harder to control across the Caribbean, even though poor waste management remains the main cause of outbreaks.

The warnings follow an extreme heat conference held earlier this year and Cayman officials' response to the April 2026 fire at the ageing George Town landfill, known locally as "Mount Trashmore." The blaze, fuelled by decomposing waste and methane buildup, blanketed nearby communities in smoke as weak winds hampered dispersion. The fire forced multiple school closures, prompted public health warnings for residents to stay indoors, disrupted traffic across George Town and sent several firefighters to hospital for treatment, renewing concerns over the long-standing environmental and public health risks posed by the landfill.

Environmental researcher Greg Guannel, of the University of the Virgin Islands’ Green Technology Center, said El Niño is expected to have a strong effect on tropical weather patterns.

He said: “El Niño conditions are what really drive temperature in the tropics because you have hot water in the Atlantic that warms the air and changes the weather pattern, affects the wind and drives the high water and air temperature in the Caribbean,” Guannel said. “We are going to potentially experience an extremely hot summer; a lot of the discussion was what this will do for human health.”

Guannel said weaker winds matter because landfill smoke can remain over communities for longer if a fire is not quickly brought under control, raising concern for people with asthma and other conditions, especially in places where homes, schools and workplaces are located close to dump sites.

Officials point to landfill practices as the main trigger

Officials from the U.S. Virgin Islands said flare-ups at the Anguilla Landfill on St Croix and the Bovoni Landfill on St Thomas had shown how landfill fires could start and spread. Virgin Islands Territorial Emergency Management Agency Director Daryl Jaschen said there were often low-level fires burning underground at landfill sites.

“There are fires burning at landfills, usually underground,” Jaschen said. He added that data collected over five years pointed to trash, oil, vegetation and arson as probable causes of outbreaks.

“One of the keys to preventing fires at any landfill is to separate the vegetation, household trash and petroleum products,” he said.

Guannel said fresh waste was often loaded on top of older piles, causing a build-up of heat and creating a fire risk.

He said: “When you stack material on top of each other, decomposition of organic material creates methane; if the temperature builds, it can get hot and then catch fire.”

Jaschen said responses range from a small flare-up that crews smother with dirt or water to a major emergency that lasts several days. He said the challenge is to control the fire quickly before smoke spreads across nearby neighbourhoods.

Cayman has already felt the impact

On Grand Cayman, the George Town landfill has already shown how disruptive such fires can be. In mid-April 2026, firefighters battled what local media described as a major blaze at the site. It was the third fire there in a month despite temporary measures introduced after earlier incidents.

The fire forced the closure of several George Town schools and prompted health and safety warnings for residents. Officials also urged West Bay residents to work from home or stagger travel times as smoke moved across main routes.

The blaze took days to extinguish. Four firefighters remained on site for days as crews worked to bring it under control, and two firefighters were hospitalised. Drone footage released during the incident showed the scale of the flames and smoke.

A small surface fire on the landfill's north side in early June was detected during routine monitoring and extinguished by Department of Environmental Health staff before firefighters arrived. Operations continued as normal, but the incident reinforced public concern about the site's vulnerability.

The repeated fires have renewed public concern over how long nearby communities will continue to face smoke, disruption and health warnings.

Cayman looks to recycling and a new landfill plan

Sustainability Minister Katherine Ebanks-Wilks told a West Bay community meeting on 20 April 2026 that the Cayman Islands needs better recycling infrastructure to reduce the risk of landfill fires and divert more waste from the George Town landfill. She said the government is preparing legislation that would allow mandatory recycling to be introduced once the necessary recycling facilities are in place, with commercial recycling expected to be phased in before any residential requirements.

However, a spokesperson for the Department of Environmental Health (DEH) in Cayman said there are more pressing concerns at the George Town landfill site, which add to the risk posed by extreme weather conditions:

"While hot, dry weather, including conditions that may be associated with El Niño, can increase the intensity and rate of spread of a fire, it is not considered the primary cause of fires at the George Town landfill. Based on the Department’s operational experience, landfill fires are most commonly linked to the improper disposal of batteries – particularly lithium-ion batteries - or other flammable materials. If these items are damaged or crushed during waste handling, they can ignite and start a fire. Hot weather can then exacerbate the situation by allowing a fire to spread more quickly."

The government has also promised a new lined landfill at the George Town site, but it remains unclear when that work would begin, what it would cost and how much risk it is expected to remove. Officials said monitoring and response measures are in place, but they also acknowledge that mitigation alone will not remove the risk entirely.

For Cayman, the question is no longer whether another landfill fire will happen, but whether the island can reduce the conditions that allow one to become a public health emergency.