Trinidad and Tobago Farmers’ Union president Shiraz Khan has warned that the country's current chicken shortage could recur within six to 12 months unless government and industry address longstanding problems in the poultry sector.

Khan told the Trinidad Guardian that pressures intensified after bird flu was detected in the Cayman Islands last December, prompting farmers in Trinidad and Tobago to adopt stricter biosecurity measures, including installing fine mesh around poultry pens to keep wild birds out.

“We could have avoided this if agriculture - and the poultry industry in particular - was treated with seriousness,” Khan said.

He pointed to rising costs, dependence on imported eggs and birds and extreme heat as pressures on poultry production. Medication prices have increased by 25% to 30%, he said, while farmers are putting fewer chickens in pens because of higher temperatures and escalating costs.

Cayman poultry challenges

The warning has particular resonance in Cayman, where poultry farmers have faced separate animal-health challenges.

The Department of Agriculture confirmed in July that Infectious Coryza had been detected in poultry flocks across the Cayman Islands. The bacterial respiratory disease affects poultry but poses no risk to humans, and officials have said poultry meat and eggs remain safe to eat.

The illness can nevertheless hurt production. Infected flocks can experience reduced feed intake and egg-production losses of between 10% and 40%, while recovered birds can remain carriers capable of spreading the bacteria.

Director of Agriculture Wilbur Welcome told The Caymanian Journal that officials were supporting farmers through surveillance, access to treatment and a planned vaccination programme.

“Our priority remains safeguarding local food production while equipping farmers with the tools and knowledge needed to manage and prevent the spread within their flocks,” Welcome said.

The department advised poultry owners to quarantine new birds for at least 30 days, separate sick birds, disinfect equipment and housing, restrict access to flocks and avoid sharing equipment between farms.

Regional food security

The developments in Trinidad raise a broader question for Cayman and other small Caribbean economies about the resilience of domestic food production when farmers face disease, extreme heat and dependence on imported agricultural inputs.

Khan described Trinidad and Tobago's response as a “firefighting system”, with action taken after problems emerge rather than through long-term planning.

“We’ve got to be thinking 2030 in 2026 - or even 2040,” he said.

There is no indication that Cayman's Infectious Coryza cases will lead to a Trinidad-style chicken shortage. The countries also have different agricultural sectors and supply chains.

But the experiences highlight common vulnerabilities. Disease can disrupt poultry production quickly, stronger biosecurity adds costs and local farmers can remain dependent on imported birds, medicines, feed and other inputs even as governments seek to increase domestic food production.

For Cayman, the regional warning comes as authorities seek to contain an existing poultry disease while protecting local egg and meat production - making preparedness, rather than an immediate shortage, the central concern.