OPINION: Understanding the Second and perhaps the Third Wave
By
Nathan ‘Jolly’ Green, May 4, 2020
We have
all heard of the saying “history always repeats itself.” Well the
COVID 19 virus is a pandemic, just like the Spanish Flu of 1918 was a
pandemic.
Like
today, in Britain, temporary hospitals were equipped; every bed in
the picture has someone in it. Many in the country wore face masks,
and social distancing was observed. But like today there were the
unbelievers, who thought it was all a hoax, and they would never get
ill, least of all die. But they could, and they did, they died by the
millions.
The
Spanish Flu lasted about 36months, and during that time, 500 million
fell ill in the world, and between 50 to 100 million died. All those
who were going to die, all those who could die, died. There were no
more whom it could kill. Fit people had probably developed herd
immunity, over a 3 to 5 year period. There was one significant
difference between this and the Corona Virus, it killed the elderly
and weak first, but it also killed people of all other ages. Some
stragglers were ill for several years after that. But the susceptible
had died, the old, the sick, the infirm, they all died. The fit
eventually stopped being ill from it and it ultimately fizzled out.
Like today there were no known potions, medicines, or vaccines.
At the
time, Churches were locked down, all places where people gathered
were closed, assembly was banned, and stay at home periods observed,
even curfews enforced.
When the
Spanish Flu first appeared in the U.S. in early March 1918, it had
all the hallmarks of the seasonal Flu, albeit a highly contagious and
virulent strain. One of the first registered cases was Albert
Gitchell, a U.S. Army cook at Camp Funston in Kansas, who was
hospitalized with a 104-degree fever. The virus spread quickly
through the Army installation, home to 54,000 troops. By the end of
the month, 1,100 soldiers had been hospitalized, and 38 [3%] had died
after developing pneumonia.
As U.S.
troops deployed en masse for the war effort in Europe [WW1], they
carried the Spanish Flu with them. Throughout April and May of 1918,
the virus spread like wildfire through England, France, Spain and
Italy. An estimated three-quarters of the French military was
infected in the spring of 1918 and as many as half of British troops.
Yet the first wave of the virus didn't appear to be particularly
deadly, with symptoms like high fever and malaise usually lasting
only three days. According to limited public health data from the
time, mortality rates were similar to seasonal Flu.
The
death rate was about 3%, the same as today's COVID 19. People in
those days died a lot easier, and they considered 3% pretty
acceptable and in-line with most other infectious disease mortality
rates.
Reported
cases of Spanish Flu dropped off over the summer of 1918, and there
was hope at the beginning of August that the virus had run its
course. People were fed up with being locked down and could not wait
to get out, down to the pub, down to the chip shop. So by mid-summer,
thinking it was all but over the people flocked everywhere, like
never before.
What
they did not know was viruses tend to come in waves, there was a
second wave of infection following closely on the heels of the first
infection. About 3.5 million people had been killed worldwide with
the first strike by the virus, but it was only the calm before the
storm. Somewhere in Europe, a mutated strain of the Spanish flu virus
had emerged that had the power to kill a perfectly healthy young man
or woman within 24 hours of showing the first signs of infection.
In late
August 1918, military ships departed the English port city of
Plymouth carrying troops unknowingly infected with this new, far
deadlier strain of Spanish Flu. As these ships arrived in towns and
cities like Brest in France, Boston in the United States, and
Freetown in West Africa, the second wave of the global pandemic
began. This second wave went on to kill 10-20% of those inflicted,
and now a further 45 to 100 million were to die, and die they did.
From
September through November of 1918, the death rate from the Spanish
Flu skyrocketed. In the United States alone, 195,000 Americans died
from the Spanish Flu in just a month of October 1918. The first wave
of the virus had killed all the worlds' old folk and those with
pre-existing illnesses. This newly mutated strain killed anyone, any
age, it was unstoppable. Then it got even worse, if that was
possible, a massive spike in the middle of the second wave composed
of otherwise healthy 25- to 35-year-olds in the prime of their life.
They died like flies; no family was spared.
Not only
was it shocking that healthy young men and women were dying by the
millions worldwide, but it was also how they were dying. Struck with
blistering fevers, nasal hemorrhaging, and pneumonia, the patients
would drown in their fluid-filled lungs.
If that
sounds familiar, it should. Because those dying with COVID 19 also
drown on the fluid in their lungs produced by pneumonia.
What we
should all fear is when they blow the whistle and call the all-clear,
tell us it's OK to go out again, that a second wave will come and
catch us all unawares. Because there is a great probability of that
happening, virus pandemics tend to behave like that.
For
those of you that have failed to grasp why you have all been asked to
use social distancing, to wear face masks, voluntary and forced self
and family isolation. It's not because they are trying to stop the
illness and stop the prevailing deaths, because that is impossible.
It's
much more straightforward than that. If we all go out and about and
we all get ill at the same time, they would never be able to control
the rate of which we fall sick and the rate that some of us die. We
will all be ill at the same time. They have to slow it down so as
hospitals, funeral parlors, and undertakers can cope. If we all get
sick at once, the whole system will collapse, and we will all end up
dying in our beds, in the street, park benches, everywhere.
As for
all the silly people who think if they go out and get the virus will
then get better and will, from then on, have immunity from the
disease for the future. Well, I am sorry to inform you it does not
quite work like that.
Some of
you will get well again, some will fully recover, but those that
rapidly die will not ever get the immunity because they will be dead.
For me,
when they blow the whistle and call the all clear, I am staying under
lockdown. I will watch what happens first for a few weeks. Those of
you that cannot wait to get out and risk becoming ill and dying,
farewell, have an awesome trip.
For
anyone over 60, pray that they will produce an effective vaccine by
the years’ end as promised. Or they find an existing chemical
antiviral drug that works on COVID 19. If they do not, it may be
lockdown for some time to come.
For
those of you who think I have overstated the case, take a look at
this article.
https://www.history.com/news/spanish-flu-second-wave-resurgence
END
DISCLAMER: The opinion, belief and viewpoint expressed by the author do not necessarily reflect the opinion, belief and viewpoint of iNews Cayman/ieyenews.com or official policies of iNews Cayman/ieyenews.com
Published May 4, 2020
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