With funding from the Caribbean Development Bank, IMC is developing guidelines to help the 19 Caribbean countries to incorporate climate change adaptation into road network planning, construction, budgeting and decision-making strategies.

Mapping the exposure of roads to climate-related shocks

Six primary challenges

1. A comprehensive approach. This is, to our knowledge, the first time that a systematic mapping of infrastructure, exposure and vulnerability is conducted. Rather than using a simplified analysis of susceptibility, we brought actual risk data together into a single platform. This allows us to build a more expert decision-making tool to target and prioritise investment.
2. Link the global to the local. A significant amount of data is required at a local level if the model is to be useful. For example,exact culvert locations are required for the mapped tool to provide usable information. Similarly, to evaluate the importance of a road, we need to map population and census data, schools, hospitals, bus routes and emergency shelters. In contrast, climate data draws on and interpolates data from global scenarios and maps this to meteorological stations, often sparsely distributed.
3. Not a crystal ball. Climate change predictions increase not just its risks but also its uncertainty as future climate depends on the extent to which we cut our emissions and how different aspects interact. As a result, critical projections, such as future rainfall and sea level rise, vary significantly, especially in the longer term. Even so, the likelihood of more extreme events can be estimated and the toolkit can help to make better decisions and secure future investments.
4. Perfect is the enemy of good. Getting the data right could turn out to be too ambitious. Our aim has been to use existing data, avoiding either assumptions on the one hand, or the need for extensive remodelling on the other. In some cases, we decided it is better to simplify the approach so that we can work with the data already available in these countries. Accurate climatic data is based on complex (generally global or regional) climate modelling. This should be utilised, to the extent that it exists but cannot be substituted for. Similarly, if the actual condition of all 19,000 road culverts on Saint Lucia is not recorded by local engineers, it is not possible to use this approach to determine where maintenance works should be prioritised. This is also reflected in our approach to social vulnerability modelling which has first considered what data is recorded in the national census of each country.
5. A good handshake. The focus of the toolkit is on achieving a good ‘handshake’ so that climate impact is better understood on the ground. The approach we adopted has brought together two distinct fields of data: that relating to physical infrastructure assets and that pertaining to climate-related hazard events and models. This will allow the toolkit to be used, as far as local capacity allows, to improve what happens locally.