U.S. President Donald Trump said on 2 October that the United States would not restrict diesel exports. "We're not going to be doing the export ban," he told reporters at the White House before leaving for Alabama, hours after the Group of Seven announced a 100 million barrel release from strategic stocks, diesel first. Asked whether the ban was off the table: "We were never going to do it."

For the ten days between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's statement on 22 September that a "full or partial ban" was under examination and the reversal, Cayman faced a question its public record answers only in part: what happens to an economy whose electricity comes almost entirely from imported U.S. diesel, with renewables under 3% on CUC's 2025 figures, if the supplier stops selling it.

Hazard Management Cayman Islands (HMCI) told The Caymanian Journal (TCJ) by email on 5 October that while it "considers fuel and other utilities within the National Disaster Plan", there is "currently no national level plan in place for shortages which may occur outside of storm or other major disasters". It said the Utility Regulation and Competition Office (URCO) "oversees the monitoring of fuel importation and supply on an ongoing basis" and promised a fuller answer this week. The one figure on the public record is five months old. Answering Parliamentary Question 119 on 1 May, Finance Minister Rolston Anglin MP said Grand Cayman held 2,788,614 imperial gallons of diesel at 20 April, which "would be used-up by 10 May 2026" with no further supply, that both suppliers replenish monthly, and that under their contracts with CUC Rubis and Sol "will together maintain an additional minimum of approximately 12 days diesel supply for energy generation at all times". Cayman Brac held 449,636 gallons, about three months. No later figure has been published. Of the five organisations TCJ asked on 2 October for a current one, only CUC had replied by 6 October, with a range rather than a number.

Who is responsible under the law

The Fuel Market Regulation Act (2017 Revision) requires Cabinet to maintain policies ensuring "a proper, adequate and continuous supply of fuel" (section 3(2)(a)), gives URCO the function of ensuring supplies are "adequate, reliable, efficient and economical" (section 5(1)(i)) and requires it to maintain "as near current as possible, an inventory of bulk storage" (section 5(2)(f)). It sets no statutory minimum stock and creates no strategic reserve; the 12-day floor the Minister described is a term of CUC's private contracts. The National Disaster Management Plan of 18 June 2025 lists the terminals and pipeline as a man-made hazard, and the National Hurricane Plan requires suppliers to report stock reserves and how long they will last; neither sets out rationing for a shortage outside a disaster.

Where the diesel comes from

Cayman has no refinery. Every gallon arrives by tanker and is discharged through subsea lines at Jackson Point, South Church Street, where both bulk terminals sit. Rubis Cayman Islands Limited says on an undated page of its website that it imports about one million barrels a year, 70% of it for CUC, "directly from sources within the Gulf of Mexico". Sol Petroleum Cayman Limited, which trades as Esso, has been part of the U.S. group Sunoco LP since 31 October 2025; Sunoco's terminal directory lists Jackson Point as five tanks totalling 134,400 barrels of jet fuel, gasoline and diesel.

The cargoes are U.S. cargoes. A certificate of analysis published by URCO for a Sol shipment sampled on 9 September 2024 records diesel loaded at Pasadena, Texas, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration records 923,000 barrels of distillate shipped from the Gulf Coast to Cayman in 2024.

One customer burns almost all of it

CUC's 2025 annual report records about 40.6 million imperial gallons of diesel consumed last year from 166 megawatts of installed capacity, about 60% from Rubis and 40% from Sol under contracts dated 1 October and 1 November 2024. At that rate the plant burns roughly 111,000 imperial gallons a day. Sunoco's figure is shell capacity across three products, not diesel in tank, and Rubis's terminal capacity is not published.

CUC told TCJ on 23 September that loading in the United States to arrival "generally takes approximately 7 to 12 days" with "an additional 2 days" to discharge, and that it "seeks to have enough fuel inventory to manage interruptions in delivery due to weather conditions".

CUC answered again on 5 October. A spokesperson said the company "maintains fuel reserves that provide several weeks of generation capability under normal operating conditions", but gave no figure in days and did not mention the 12-day contractual floor. A complete interruption "would be considered highly unlikely", the spokesperson said; CUC "would work with those suppliers to secure alternative supply sources where available", so "the primary impact would likely be on fuel cost volatility rather than immediate system reliability, provided alternative supply chains remain accessible". Its 20 megawatt battery, which saved an estimated 1.3 million imperial gallons in 2025, "could help conserve available fuel" but is "not a source of fuel".

The cost reaches customers on a two-month lag; U.S. retail diesel averaged a record US$6.53 a gallon in the week of 21 September.

What Government has done

Government's response has been on price. On 28 September Cabinet extended the Fuel Relief Programme to 31 December, keeping the full duty waiver on diesel and gasoline and the CI$0.18 per kilowatt hour residential cap, at a cost of about CI$11.35 million from 1 June to 31 August. On 30 March Cabinet approved drafting instructions to consolidate fuel-sector licensing under URCO; that release promised "stronger resilience in fuel supply chains, particularly during emergencies" but did not mention minimum stock or a reserve.

On supply, the record is quieter. TCJ put five questions to URCO on 2 October, including days of diesel cover on each island, whether any importer must hold a minimum stock and arrangements with HMCI for a prolonged interruption. The questions were referred to the Ministry of Planning, Lands, Agriculture, Housing and Infrastructure and then to the Ministry of Finance and Economic Development, which told TCJ on 5 October it would respond "as soon as is practicable" and asked for three business days. Nothing further had arrived by 6 October.

The Sister Islands and the Bill

Cayman Brac and Little Cayman are supplied by small tanker to Island Energy Ltd, formerly Cayman Brac Power and Light, which generates entirely on diesel; TCJ asked the company on 2 October how many days of cover it holds and had not received a reply by 6 October. In Parliament, Chris Saunders MP's Fuel Market Regulation (Amendment) Bill, 2026, gazetted on 2 September as Supplement No. 1 to Extraordinary Gazette No. 63, would let URCO review any fuel supply contract of a provider with significant market power and order it retendered against criteria including "security of supply"; the Government's notice listed it eleventh of twelve Bills for the meeting that began on 30 September.

The export ban is off. What the ten days showed is that the only count of Cayman's diesel on the public record dates from April, that the floor beneath it is a contract term rather than a law, that the inventory the Act requires URCO to keep has not been published, and that, on HMCI's account, no national plan exists for a shortage that arrives without a storm.